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☆ Taiwan faces economic uncertainty as tensions with China are set to rise after DPP victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowAmundi warned a possible temporary economic blockade of Taiwan could alarm the markets. Political status quo, economic worriesChina has dismissed the outcome of Taiwan's elections, saying the DPP does not represent the mainstream public opinion. On Jan. 13, Taiwan delivered an unprecedented third presidential term to the ruling DPP's Lai, considered a China skeptic. Loss of legislature to temper DPP stanceThe DPP won the presidency, but it lost its majority in the the Legislative Yuan — Taiwan's parliament. Teneo's Wildau said Beijing was likely to continue refusing official dialogues with the DPP presidential administration, but could pursue conversations with KMT leaders.

Persons: Managment, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Nataxis, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Lai Ching, DPP's Lai, Wildau, Lai, Tsai, Mr Lai's, Yuan —, Yuan, Herrero, Teneo's Wildau Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan, Asia, DPP, Economist Intelligence Unit, KMT, Taiwan People's Party Locations: Taipei, Taiwan, China, Beijing

☆ China ramps up yuan internationalisation under Belt and Road Initiative
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A China yuan note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. And funding BRI projects has helped China revitalise the once-stalled process of yuan internationalisation. Another policy bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, signed a yuan-based loan agreement with Saudi National Bank, while Bank of China helped Egypt issue Africa's first yuan-denominated Panda bonds. Beijing also allocated an additional 80 billion yuan ($10.94 billion) to its Silk Road Fund for BRI projects. "Can you do this in a targeted way with MOUs with all BRI countries?

Persons: Thomas White, Vladimir Putin, Xi, Alicia Garcia Herrero, China revitalise, Malaysia's Maybank, Haoxin Mu, Natixis, Garcia Herrero, Samuel Shen, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Initiative, Forum, Asia Pacific, Natixis, China International Capital Corp, China Development Bank, BBVA, Export, Import Bank of China, Saudi National Bank, Bank of, Fund, Thomson Locations: China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Beijing, Russia, Asia, U.S, Ukraine, Africa, Europe, Egypt's, BBVA Peru, Bank of China, Egypt

"There is a significant risk in the short term of financial crisis or other degree of economic crisis that would carry very substantial social and political costs for the Chinese government. By the time the global financial crisis hit in 2008-09, it had already met most of its investment needs for its level of development, economists say. To keep growth high, China in the 2010s doubled down on infrastructure and property investment, at the expense of household consumption. China has since backed away from major financial market liberalisation while plans to rein in state behemoths and introduce universal social welfare never quite materialised. "But at the same time there's a great fear of the short-term political and social risk, especially of provoking an economic crisis."

Persons: Xi Jinping's, William Hurst, Chong Hua, there's, Max Zenglein, We're, Logan Wright, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hurst, Liangping Gao, Kevin Yao, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Sam Holmes Organizations: Development, University of Cambridge, International Monetary Fund, Asia Pacific, China's, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Japan, Beijing, Natixis

☆ Analysis-China's stubborn savers risk precipitating liquidity trap
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Winni Zhou | Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

“Based on Japan’s experience in the 1990s, there is the risk that China is entering a liquidity trap due to the risks of balance-sheet recession,” said Natixis’s chief economist for Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. Yet about 180 domestic A-share companies say in their stock filings that they have invested in CDs this year. China’s 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil’s population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year. “I wouldn’t pour money into the stock market any time before I see a clear rising trend,” he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, ”, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, “, Byron Gill, ‘, ” Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, ” Wu, John Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo’s Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai

Analysts see the same lack of confidence in today's Chinese households and companies that Japan grappled with in the 1990s. But in China's case there is a key difference; there is no deflationary threat yet, nor have banks switched off lending. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. China's policymakers have cut rates and encouraged banks to lend more in efforts to revive economic growth after the pandemic. China's 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil's population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year.

Persons: Florence Lo, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, Byron Gill, Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, John, Winni Zhou, Rae Wee, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo's, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai, Singapore

"For China, it is 'bad news is good news' at the moment," said Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney. Even before the latest disappointing growth data, a slew of soft economic indicators had shown China's recovery was falling short, slamming the brakes on nascent stock market rallies. Foreign money has been leaving, with worries over China's cyber-security crackdowns and Sino-U.S. flaps over chips and rare metals adding to growth concerns. REVIEWING CHINAGoldman Sachs analysts led by Kinger Lau also believe a 'tactical market recovery' thesis is compelling, and project a 15% 12-month return for the CSI300. "We are conservative about the extent of the policy support down the road," said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist, Asia Pacific at Natixis.

Persons: Jun Bei Liu, Liu, Marcella Chow, CHINA Goldman Sachs, Kinger Lau, it's, Mike Kelly, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Eugenia Victorino, SEB, Victorino, Ting Lu, Jason Xue, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill Organizations: Tribeca Investment Partners, CSI, Morgan Asset Management, CHINA, JPMorgan, PineBridge Investments, Nomura, Thomson Locations: China, Sydney, U.S, Asia, Natixis, Shanghai

As debt obligations mount, some local governments are pushing banks to extend maturities and cut interest rates, sources said. Reuters Graphics"BLACK HOLES""The LGFVs have become the black hole of the Chinese financial system. Chinese banks and other financial institutions have been cautious on new lending to LGFVs over the past years. In recent months, some state-owned banks, asset managers, and insurers have been looking into their portfolios to screen LGFV borrowers with weaker creditworthiness and dispose them, separate financial sector sources told Reuters. Offshore branches of Chinese financial institutions have been major buyers of the bonds, industry sources said.

☆ Adani fallout could have political implications for India in the longer term, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The fallout from the Adani Group turmoil could have political implications for India, said a chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis. While corporate governance issues affect countries globally, what is different about the Adani case for India is that its "highly political," Alicia Garcia Herrero told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday. Indian billionaire founder Gautam Adani has been under scrutiny after allegations in January from U.S. short-seller firm Hindenburg Research that accused the Adani Group of companies of fraud. Adani, India's top industrialist, has since lost his crown as Asia's wealthiest man. However, the long-term political fallout for India remains to be seen, the economist said.

It marked the slowest growth since May when Shanghai was under lockdown, partly due to disruptions in key manufacturing hubs Guangzhou and Zhengzhou. Retail sales fell 5.9% amid broad-based weakness in the services sector, also the biggest contraction since May. "The weak activity data suggest that the policy needs to be eased further to revive the growth momentum," said Hao Zhou, chief economist at GTJAI. "The increased size of the MLF rollover this morning is in line with the overall easing policy tones. That would hit businesses and consumers, while a weakening global economy hurts Chinese exports.

☆ Hong Kong home prices drop to the lowest in nearly five years — and the worst may not be over
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Prices of Hong Kong's residential properties plunged to a near five-year low as rising interest rates and a mass exodus of expat workers drove down prices in one of the world's most expensive cities to work in. Hong Kong's home price index for October fell 2.4% to 352.4 compared to the previous month, marking the lowest level for the gauge since November 2017. Hong Kong, the world's least affordable housing market, saw dips in some of its largest private housing estates. In YOHO town, a 393-square feet apartment that's currently listed for 5.98 million Hong Kong dollars — that's about HK$15,216 per square foot, and a 20% drop in price compared to the previous month. A confluence of factors including weaker growth predictions and mainland Covid policies contribute to the grim outlook, but Hong Kong's immigration crisis and snowballing interest rates remain salient sticking points.

☆ Sterling dips after Truss resigns, fragile yen weakens past 150 level
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan. The U.S. dollar pushed to a fresh two-decade high versus major peers on Thursday, propelled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook for interest rates. The euro fell 0.15% to $0.97725, after tracking the move in sterling to an overnight high of $0.98455. Meanwhile, the yen last bought 150.20 per dollar, after hitting a fresh 32-year low of 150.29 overnight. U.S. Treasury yields extended their climb overnight, with the two-year Treasury yield hitting a 15-year high of 4.623%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.243%, its highest level since June 2008.

Monthly debt market data shows foreign investors have been net sellers for seven straight months to August as what had been a lucrative yield premium in China vanished as U.S. interest rates soared. GIMME SHELTERAmid foreign investors' exodus, there are signs of locals following as fast as allowable under capital controls that were tightened after the previous season of heavy outflows in 2016. Moving money is also very difficult as COVID-19 curbs on travel add another layer to capital controls. Data from consultancy Education International Cooperation showed a 41.5% jump in queries about study in Hong Kong between January and July, compared with the same period a year earlier. They expect a rush to Hong Kong products when the border between Hong Kong and the mainland reopens.

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